Systemic Uncertainty and the Emergence of Border Disputes

Although an abundance of evidence shows that territorial disputes fundamentally shape relations among states, we know surprisingly little about when territorial claims are made. We use new data on the spatial distribution of historical borders and territorial claims across four centuries of European history to demonstrate that the majority of territorial claims are drawn following historical boundary precedents at times of high systemic uncertainty. For instance, 19th century claims, several of which contributed to subsequent wars, are clustered at 1848 and 1870–1871, years in which crises engulfed several of Europe’s great powers. Importantly, the claims that emerge at this time are not necessarily among states involved in the crises that generated uncertainty in the system, e.g., the Concert of Europe system. Moreover, the claims follow historical precedents that have no plausible relation to the revolutions of 1848, for example. Rather, states make claims in areas where well-established historical precedents, i.e., precedents that were actual borders for a long period, and make these claims when systemic uncertainty suggests that great powers are occupied with other crises and have lost the ability or will to effectively intervene in border disputes involving third parties. ∗We thank participants of the 2015 North American meeting of the Peace Science Society (International) for comments on a very early (pre-written) version of this project. All mistakes remain our own responsibility.